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This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. by Retrosheet. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. That search reveals the following players. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Higgins over one inning. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. Prior to the . Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. For instance, Heyward, batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career, put up a solid .351 OBP, scored 74 runs and stole 20 bases at an impressive 83% success rate, all while batting .271, the second-best mark of his big league tenure. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. . The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. 1 day ago. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Age is the decisive factor here. Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. We're asking for your help to make it. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network. He went second to home on a single. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Meanwhile, the team is likely stuck with big contracts for the likes of B.J. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Thats just how it goes. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Perhaps rightfully so. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. Look at Jason Heyward. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. Just like I wanted to see one in there. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . This group also aged incredibly well. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Some call it a sweeper. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. Given his decent wheels, it seems highly unlikely that Heyward will continue to keep company with players who run like they have grand pianos strapped to their backs. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. Games. The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. One of the hottest young prospects in baseball right now is Atlanta's Jason Heyward. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves The team is confident in Jason Heyward. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Signup . Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But Trejo, who came to Spring Training to try to change some minds, had a change in latitude because Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers sustained a dislocated left shoulder in the previous game. So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Nov 6 2015 Extended a $15.8 million qualiying offer by St. Louis (STL) Nov 17 2014 Traded to St. Louis (STL) from Atlanta (ATL) with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. Jason Heyward. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. Hows it going to go? by Retrosheet. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Heyward will get paid. 2023 Pre-Season Projections Massive crying face emoji. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. For my ease, I took five-year averages for both WAR and the cost of a win when calculating the total. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. On Friday, the Cubs won the bidding for Jason Heyward, convincing the outfielder to come to Chicago despite offers for more guaranteed money from the Nationals, the Cardinals, and reportedly. The line was rough from lefty starter Austin Gomber on Tuesday against the Rangers four runs on five hits, including a Clint Frazier home run, while recording two outs. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . SUMMARY Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. Its not surprising. Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. $8? Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. UZRs range component agrees. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. All he needs to do is stay healthy. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. It happens. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. . Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. by Retrosheet. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The group as a whole averaged nearly four wins per season from age 26 through age 30, which would be a very good result for Jason Heyward. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. How much will he be worth? As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. by Retrosheet. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Chicago Cubs. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Hes still really young While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. One spring of spring-training data. 3 outfielder who has yet to prove hes a reliable high-end fantasy option. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. What follows is going to lean upon some spring-training data.