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Note, he has a 10th place finish here at Bay Hill, a 17th in Scottsdale, and lost to Justin Thomas in a playoff at Southern Hills in the 2022 PGA Championship. However, the defending champion but will not be in the field for his title defense after leaving the PGA TOUR behind for LIV. My advice to Frank Nobilo is to ignore proximity and use SG approach instead to silence the critics. So just as the Homa in California trend continues to pay dividends, Zalatoris in difficult conditions is one of the most reliable narratives in professional golf to go back to. Let the right arm straighten in the downswing. Frank Nobilo and I were chatting earlier this year and he mentioned the pushback he received for quoting a proximity stat on air. At Riviera CC, Im defining Comp Conditions as layouts that also feature narrow fairways, penal rough, and difficult all-around scoring. Less than half their approach shots are ending up inside. Im looking to stockpile value in the mid-range of the odds board and I cant think of a better candidate than the 2021 Masters champion. This helps me get shallow which is needed to get lower flight and spin. That high Missed-Fairway percentage also correlates with one of the lowest Green-In-Regulation percentages on TOUR. It should begin to populate by midday Monday as sportsbooks open odds for the API. Since 2015, Matsuyama has posted four top-11 finishes in seven appearances. At 7,322 yards and par-71, Riviera's distance doesn't jump off the page. In 1993, my 1st year, I believe still were using Titleist Tour Balata - then the "Professional" came out next. PGA Tour Average Proximity to Hole - Fairway (in yards) . A look down the list of past champions illustrates a trend of above-average driving distance with total driving as a strength of their games. Matsuyama has six top-20 finishes over the last two years between The Farmers, The Masters, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and U.S. Open at The Country Club. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. Instead, itll be a week for patience to observe where the value slips to. It appears your browser may be outdated. Weve seenMatt Everywin as often asTiger Woodssince 2010 (twice). The 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational follows the Sentry Tournament of Champions, WM Phoenix Open, and Genesis Invitational as the fourth Designated, Elevated event of the season, and third over the last four weeks. The anatomy of a grinder in tough conditions from a statistical standpoint typically includes some combination of elite driving distance, consistent scoring across long par-3, 4, and 5s, Bogey Avoidance, and a comfortability on firm and fast greens. PGA TOUR - European Tour - 4 Most Recent Majors - Champions Tour - LPGA - Korn Ferry - Custom Performance Analysis Where Winners Come From - examine position of tournament winners per round - by player or tournament Prior Tournaments - analyize previous 4 Weeks on tour and at this weeks tournament. Overlapping winners at Augusta National includes: Scott, Watson, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Mike Weir, Fred Couples, and Nick Faldo. That has been proven here at Bay Hill with four visits to this tournament and finishes of 21st, 20th, 3rd, and 3rd. 80-100 yards. Another Method: Use Average 5-Iron Distance. With its Elevated status, the purse has increased to an event-high $20M, which has attracted all eligible players inside the OWGR top-50. This event ranked in the bottom two in average Driving Accuracy every year since 2015. No. Typical pitching wedge shots total 109 yards. Top 100 Courses in the U.S.: GOLFs all-new 2022-23 ranking is here! But even then, the very best putters on Tour are averaging just over 80' of made putts per round. On the other hand, I think theres just too much length on par-4s to lean on your typical fairway finders here. PLAYER PLOTS QUERY TOOL Approach Skill NEW Using strokes-gained, proximity, and GIR to break down approach skill across 6 yardage buckets. having already secured his 2022/23 card with a stunning 50-foot birdie putt on the last hole of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship - enough to . I mentioned earlier that this weeks winner will need to be excellent in two of the three areas we highlighted either off of the tee, with the irons, or with the short game. Over 14 career appearances, Scott missed just one cut to go along with eight top-11 finishes, including three over the last four years. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). This is one of the rare weeks on the PGA TOUR where Course History is sticky enough to prioritize over Comp Course History. ET (the day's coverage includes Golf Today at 12 p.m. Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson were the only other tour players to top the 300-yard mark, as both averaged 302.1 yards on their drives. This course has seen success from short game savants likeKevin Na, Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, andChristiaan Bezuidenhoutwho lack the distance youd ideally want to see for Bay Hill. Some of the bigger names in this field that check that box are Gary Woodland, Sungjae Im, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, and Rory McIlroy. PGA Tour golfers are, not surprisingly, capable of hitting the ball farther than average players -- not only off the tee but also with each club in the bag. The answer is that his approach play was very good, but proximity as a measure of approach play was not. For the week, Casey ranked 9th in driving accuracy, 6th in strokes gained off the tee and 9th in SG around the green. This will be one of the most crucial weeks for short game outside of Majors. 9 could mean Players' first 600-yard hole Courses Golfweek's Best Courses Best You Can Play, state by state Top private courses, state by state Top 200 Resort Golf. There are 11 players who rank top-40 in SG: ARG, Scrambling Gained, and Bogey Avoidance: Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Seamus Power, JJ Spaun, Andrew Putnam, Aaron Baddeley, and Mackenzie Hughes. The presence of these reachable par-4s and par-5s creates hidden distance in the rest of the course, which also includes three par-3s over 190 yards and six par-4s over 450 yards. When Tiger Woods invites you to his invitational event with a $20 million purse on the line, its the type of event you work your schedule around. The fairways get narrower as you get closer to the green, encouraging even the longest hitters to take less than driver off the tee, and effectively removes wedge shots that would be more common on easier layouts. Free learning! These are all skillsets Matsuyama leaned into to win the 2021 Masters and have helped him contend regularly at this event over the years. While we wont have a title defense to look forward to, unfortunately, Id say Woods return to competitive professional golf is a pretty decent consolation prize. PGA Tour Average Proximity to Hole - Fairway (in yards) 29Jan 0. The King, Arnold Palmer, took over the controls on this event in 1979, moving it to Bay Hill, the club he purchased in 1976. A true all-around test from tee-to-green is fairly rare on the PGA TOUR schedule outside of the Majors. TPC Potomac stands out, with top 10 finishers at the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship featuring many perennial Riviera standouts. McIlroywas on my betting card at 25-1 in Genesis Invitational odds last year and was my One And Done selection as well. For a tournament with a field that left a lot to be desired, the magic of the PGA Tour shined through as Cole and Kirk separated themselves from the pack on Sunday afternoon. In particular, I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Strokes Gained: Off The Tee on long courses, Strokes Gained: Total on hard courses with long rough, Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermuda, Par 5 Scoring, Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Par 4s from 450-500 yards, and Proximity to the Hole from 150 to greater than 200 yards. After Scott, the rest of the top 10 in Event History includes: McIlroy, Rahm, Homa, Xander Schauffele, Luke Donald, Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Aaron Baddeley, and Hideki Matsuyama. For the week, Caseys average proximity was 41 feet 11 inches. Top 10 Finished | Scoring Average | Greens Percentage | Scrambling These firm and fast Poa greens also give players fits every year. . Unlikely. Riviera CC is one of the most iconic venues on the PGA TOUR schedule. As for stats to avoid,Prox 75-125andSand Saves Gainedsaw the biggest drop in importance. He was the first round leader at this event last year, and has now posted the low round of the day in the last seven API events. 1, 2, and 3 (Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Jon Rahm) highlight the field this week. In 2021, we saw play suspended due to severe winds. This has really help me get my wedges flighted lower with spin. There is a long list of players who have enjoyed repeated success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I have a hard time picturing players like Homa, Cantlay, Thomas, and Morikawa priced longer than Zalatoris, which means Zal should open around 25-1. Hes never won on the east coast before, and had avoided coming to this event up until last year, where he lost 5+ strokes with his short game. Over eight career appearances, hes never finished outside the top-30, including a win in 2018 and a current streak of six consecutive top-13 finishes. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in three of the last four years. Lob Wedge. It's more about intuitively knowing how much juice to put on, the same for a "feel shot" you make with a 56 or 60 degree from ~60 yards out. Only 80.4 percent of PGA Tour pros hit the green from 115 yards out in the fairway, which means that 1 in 5 miss the green altogether. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. The API tests players all-around games and has produced a decorated list of winners. That changed on Thursday. Yet he ranked 43rd in SG putting and, strikingly, 65th out of 70 players who made the cut in proximity to the hole (a measure of approach play). The former world No. Basket. Also similar to PGA National, heavy Florida winds factor in. The way to fix this stat is to account for the initial distance to the hole and the starting location (fairway, rough, etc.). Par 3, 4, 5 are more common with many golf courses but some courses include Par 6. Willy Z was the first name I threw out as someone I thought could be your winner here this week. I typically dont feed that many categories into my model. Francesco Molinari a member at Riviera CC and top-10 finisher in this event in 2021 was also dominant in his victory at the 2018 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac. With all the course-fit profiles in mind, Im leaning early towards the below player pool for DFS. That list includes McIlroy, Homa, Finau, Rahm, Cantlay, Schauffele, Day, Zalatoris, Harman, and Sungjae Im. What makes Bay Hill so great is the diversity of leaderboards weve seen here. The wind at the Genesis Invitational today is absolutely insane!pic.twitter.com/TMz44EvdDq. Ten of the last 11 winners of this event ranked in the Top 55 on Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 200 or more yards. Matsuyama, Young, Homa, and Sungjae Im are all players Ill be keeping a close eye on when odds release Monday. This may be good week to monitor U.S. Open futures if value players impress. Is Tiger going to win this event? Their success off the tee, however, didnt turn any of the three into dominant players. "On the PGA Tour, from 20 yards in the rough, when you have at least 10 yards of green to work with, [Tour pros] leave 50 percent of their shots outside of eight feet." Why the key to. For bettors sake, youll find better value looking anywhere else on the outright board. When looking at the Top 26 players in the OWGR, 15 of them are priced shorter than 35-1 to win this week at Bay Hill. Both courses are over 7,400 yards with an advantage to bombers, they feature thick and penal rough throughout, and have firm and fast Bermuda greens. It would be clich to say that no course compares to Riviera CC, but I do struggle to find an exact match. After Quail Hollow, PGA National, Innisbrook Resort, and The Concession all share similar characteristics from the Florida region, while Muirfield Village has also offered a similarly stern test with its length, thick rough, and firm greens. So how did Casey do it? It is the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, where just 120 players comprise what is a stacked field. How to watch the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational on Friday: Round 2 TV schedule, streaming, Is Jon Rahm now chasing Tiger Woods? The year of his Open Championship victory at Royal St. George's, he led the tour in approaches from, 125 to 150 yards, 150 to 175 yards, and from 175 to 200 yards. Critics say new PGA Tour events copy LIV. A slew of long Par 4s and long par-3s require long irons into multi-tiered greens at different elevation. Includes Fantasy TeamBuilder In true Arnie fashion, always tinkering with his swing and his clubs, he did the same over the years with this golf course. Tiger Woods is ranked number one in total strokes gained and he is ranked at or near the top of PGA TOUR golfers in each of the three main categories: long game, short game and putting. The fairways have been made wider and longer but the rough is about as close to U.S. Here's another general guideline for choosing the distance at which to play a golf course: Take your average 5-iron distance (be honest! For the best website. The courses are very different, but an emphasis on creative shot making is prevalent on both courses. I wont be going out of my way to play this group of players who have chosen to skip this event when given the choice. 70-90 yards. Scott credited his repeated success at Riviera to his comfort on Poa greens. He ranked second in strokes gained/putting and made 407 feet of. With a winning score of -12 or less in five of the last six contests, the ability to repeatedly scramble for pars is a premium skillset to bring to Bay Hill. Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Keith Mitchell, Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland, Bryson DeChambeau, and Luke List have all proven the strong correlation between both courses. In the last three seasons, weve seen this golf course become much more difficult. This table shows how far the average golfer generally hits with each club when he or she makes solid contact. M.L. Rory McIlroy has an intriguing idea for future PGA Tour events, 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: How to watch, TV schedule, streaming, tee times, Meet the new GOLF Top 100 Teachers of America, 7 interesting gear finds inside Tommy Fleetwoods golf bag | Bag Spy, Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Many players say they hit their seven iron 150 yards when in reality, it's 145 or 155. Shot Scope have analysed their database of golfers to find out just how close golfers hit the ball from varying approach shots. Woods handed the trophy to Joaquin Niemann this time last year. A few additional players with multiple top-20 finishes over the same span includes Charley Hoffman, Scottie Scheffler, Byeong Hun An, Max Homa, Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. With a player recovering from injury, such as Tiger Woods for example, its fair to expect play to get worse over four rounds as fatigue sets in. I think hes primed for another if not better. Bay Hill is no different with five par-4s measuring over 450 yards and all four par-3s measuring over 200 yards. Nine of the Top 10 players in the OWGR are present, 23 of the Top 25 and 44 of the Top 50 players in the world rankings are scheduled to tee it up this Thursday. Some of the bigger names in this field that check that box are Gary. Rivieras greens are known to be among the trickiest on the PGA TOUR to hole putts on from short range, so Ill be looking to dial in on those who are most comfortable on the crucial 5-10 footers. Most were using metal drivers. For the season, Paul Casey ranked 9th in corrected proximity and 7th in SG approach. . Though Mr. Palmer has passed on, the tinkering at Bay Hill continues. @JustinThomas34 proximity to hole ranks 50-75 yards: 3rd 75-100 yards: 1st 100-125 yards: 1st 125-150 yards: 2nd 150-175 yards: 3rd 06 Sep 2022 19:22:40 It is also worth noting that he is No. We hate touts. Although that list spans drastically different profiles of players, there is a prevailing trend of veterans whove proven consistent in difficult scoring conditions. Long game shots (those starting over 100 yards from the hole) explain about two-thirds of the variability in scores among golfers on the PGA TOUR. Tournament TOUR Championship TOUR Average 3' 8" The average distance to the hole (in feet) after hitting the ball onto the putting surface from around the green and the shot taken was less. Id also adjust for course difficulty and strength of field to get a measure of corrected proximity. And so I did. The median driving distance average on the PGA Tour in 2011 was 282 yards. That group includes Homa, Hahn, McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Yong, and Griffin. You cant simply cross players off from contending if they are below average in Distance, Approach, or Putting. Instead,Bogey Avoidance, GIRs Gained, P4: 450-500,andSG: Short Gamemake the biggest jumps inside the top 10 at this event. The typical carry for a 3-iron shot was 203 yards; for a 4-iron 189; for a 5-iron 181; for a 6-iron 169; for a 7-iron 160; for an 8-iron 149; and for a 9-iron 136. For Bay Hill course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past API winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Arnold Palmer odds page. three appearances): Scott, Schauffele, Homa, Rahm, Hahn, Holmes, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Russell Henley, Alex Noren, KH Lee, Lanto Griffin, Scott Piercy, and Brian Harman. Ten of the last 11 winners of this event ranked in the Top 55 on Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 200 or more yards. Her 3-, 5- and 7-woods carry 195, 185 and 174 yards, respectively and total 218, 200 and 186 yards. As far as correlated courses, I looked at Scottsdale. That means Arnold Palmer Invitational odds will include most of the best players in the world. For PGA and LPGA players, the best data available tracks carry distance. We know he is an elite iron player, he ranks No. Harman ranks 21st in this field over the last 24 rounds on hard courses with long rough. The PGA Tour returns this week after Chris Kirk was able to hold off 34-year -old longshot rookie Eric Cole in a playoff. Even more encouraging to me than the T4 placement however, is how hes finished tournaments. Since winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship last August, his health has gone into question, so Ive been hesitant to back him in 2023 until we see signs of a full recovery. Now it has matured into one of my favorite landscapes to watch golf, as well. Road To Kentucky Derby Standings: Confidence Game Worth Monitoring, James Harden NBA Player Props: 76ers Vs. Heat Monday Odds, Atlantic Sun Tournament Odds: Liberty The Clear-Cut Favorite, Complete 2023 College Basketball Conference Tournament Schedule. To strike high-quality golf shots, comprehending your club distance is essential. But a T4 finish at the Genesis Invitational last we saw him should now quell any remaining speculation as to whether hes healthy enough to contend again. Step 1 - don't panic. Id say Im committed regardless of the odds, and in addition to Zalatoris, will also be considering Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, and Sam Burns for my betting card when Arnold Palmer Invitational odds are released on Monday. Total Driving (2022-23 PGA TOUR season) Keith Mitchell 26 (15 11) Shane Lowry 45 (32 13) Scottie Scheffler 56 (28 28) on the PGA TOUR. Ohio Sports Betting Promos: Michigan State Spartans at OSU Buckeyes Odds, Saturday College Basketball Best Bets: Situational Spots Worth Considering. Instead, the list of past champions back to tee it up includeMax Homa, Adam Scott, J.B. Holmes, and James Hahn. @JustinThomas34 proximity to hole ranks 50-75 yards: 3rd 75-100 yards: 1st 100-125 yards: 1st 125-150 yards: 2nd 150-175 yards: 3rd" . Golf is hard and Tour highlights don't give a realistic idea just how hard it is. Sand Wedge. The median score has fallen around +5 in years where winds are up, so needless to say, itll be worth monitoring the forecast this week. They can hit 5-iron shots 195 to 205 yards; 6-iron shots 180 to 190 yards; 7-iron shots 165 to 180 yards; 8-iron shots 150 to 170 yards; and 9-iron shots 140 to 155 yards. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. At 7,322 yards and par-71, Rivieras distance doesnt jump off the page. There is a long list of 18 players who have avoided missing the cut over the last five years (minimum three appearances): McIlroy, Kirk, Im, Hatton, Bradley, Bezuidenhout, Mitchell, Homa, Matsuyama, Fowler, An, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Rodgers, Harris English, Zach Johnson, Brendon Todd, and Beau Hossler. Driving Accuracy specialists like Reavie, Kuchar, and Donald found their fair share of success here. But one thing I want to point out is how TIGHT the dispersion is from this distance. Ball back in your stance will get you steep. In the two areas we pinpointed earlier, Im is 12th on Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 200+ yards and 7th in Par 5 Scoring. The Twitter handle is a joke. Standing over 7,400 yards, Bay Hill will force a high volume of approaches from 200+ yards, and features some of the thickest rough on TOUR. Nearing 7,500 yards, Bay Hill offers a high concentration of approaches from long range. For the 2019 season, the leaders in corrected proximity were Justin Thomas, Henrik Stenson and Viktor Hovland. From a putting standpoint, the Bermuda specialists stand out on the Florida Swing. In terms of stats to de-prioritize when handicapping Genesis Invitational odds, all proximity stats frominside 150yards did not correlate with success at Riviera CC. However, imposes one of the most stern challenges on the PGA TOUR nonetheless. 0 0 0. pic.twitter.com/FnuG8URegM. As a PGA Tour Professional, you would assume that the yardages would again be perfect and they're close, with an average of 150.8 yards. For the par-4s, many of these approaches will come from the rough with players hitting less than 50% of fairways on average. On a calm day, Riviera presents one of the toughest challenges we see across golf. On paper, its a perfect fit for Rahm who can lean on all his ball-striking strengths and long-iron prowess to generate amble scoring opportunities at Bay Hill. Any wayward drives into the trees are essentially an automatic bogey. Riviera CCs sneaky length and persistent doglegs culminate into a funneling of about 75% of approach shots from beyond 150 yards. 1 spot in my model this week. Another week, another elevated event! Like PGA National last week, penalties loom, with water hazards in play on nine holes. Touts are lame. The perfect golfer for Riviera CC should be solid in Good Drives Gained + SG: OTT, Proximity: 150-200, and SG: Around the Green. Those at the top of Genesis Invitational odds boards rarely prove able to close the door at this event. Driver a long way, typically in the 290-yard range Nicklaus led the Tour in driving is., this course ranked as the ninth-hardest course on pga tour proximity to hole 50 yards PGA Tour average to. Since 2020, Zal has delivered 17 top-10 finishes, 12 of which coming in comp difficult conditions between Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village, Riviera CC, Winged Foot, The Country Club, Southern Hills, Kiawah Island, Augusta National, and right here at Bay Hill. Big Sky Tournament Odds: Is Two-Seed Montana State The Rightful Favorite? Colt Knost and the other PGA Tour pros that called Royal Oaks Golf Club in Dallas home used to call Scottie Scheffler their little shadow. Currently I practice indoors because of the winter. What "TPC Impossible" is, though, is it's actually a composite course of the most difficult holes, by number, on the PGA Tour in 2021. RELATED: 5 Things That WWE 2K21 Needs To Fix (& 5 Things To Keep From 2K20) The alternately-named chapters that led to PGA Tour 2K21 were . A par-68 layout measuring at over 7,600 yards and. He said he didn't think adding . The opening hole is a downhill, 500-yard Par-5. (Im air-quoting the designation because it could just as easily be labeled a difficult par-4.) As is normally the case when we get to a difficult golf course that tests all-around game, the markers of success at Bay Hill do not vary drastically from what it takes to succeed across all PGA TOUR courses. A proper mixture of distance and accuracy is the ticket here. The win foreshadowed better results later to come for Scheffler in Majors. New tee at TPC Sawgrass No. Nearly 50% of those approaches come from between 150-200 yards.